Metoda Gutzmana

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Postautor: chenjinyan » 2 sie 2017, o 03:49

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20178.2chenjinyan
chenjinyan
 
Posty: 164
Rejestracja: 27 maja 2017, o 04:01

Re: Metoda Gutzmana

Postautor: studyjny » 4 sie 2017, o 13:16

Ktoś ma jakieś doświadczenia z tą metodą? Jakie przynosi efekty i ogólnie jak przebiega? Jestem bardzo ciekawy

_______________________
https://aptekaprima24.pl
studyjny
 
Posty: 6
Rejestracja: 4 sie 2017, o 13:11

Re: Metoda Gutzmana

Postautor: juro342 » 12 wrz 2017, o 06:21

średnio to mi się podoba

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juro342
 
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Re: Metoda Gutzmana

Postautor: evahe » 29 wrz 2017, o 10:02

the US presidential election for five consecutive Zapatos Under Armour Curry Canada Goose Brookvale Hoody years, could be said to be a symbol of grassroots polls at the time. 'Grassroots polls' popular moment, there was a former advertising industry businessman George Gallup, began to use a sample survey method. In the 1936 presidential election, he not only pointed out that the 'literary abstract' predicted that Alfred Langdon would beat Roosevelt to be elected president was wrong, but also investigated more than the 'literary abstract' opinion polls less voters, accurate prediction Roosevelt will beat Langdon. 1936 'literary abstracts' error prediction After the election results announced, Nike Air Max Shoes 'literary abstracts' reputation discredited, not only did not do public opinion investigation, and a few months after the declaration of closure. The success of Gallup led opinion polls out of the narrow range of 'grassroots polls'. The scope of polls Zapatos Nike Shox extends from the political sphere to the economic, cultural and social fields, and the methods of investigation are more scientific, thus opening the modern sense Opinion polls. Election poll how 'tune'? In the United States, the principle of opinion polls is simple, that is, all voters in a random selection of a group of voters, to understand their voting tendencies, in the use of scientific inference method, by a hundred, so as to get the intention of the national voters. Survey sample selection, the general national polls, the number of investigations at least 1,000 people, the state polls, because the organizers of resource constraints, often only choose hundreds of people. Of course, the larger the number of samples, the greater the difference in the coverage of the population layer, such as as much as possible to take into account the gender, race, education, income, geographical differences, the stronger the sample representation. But there is also a problem here. Even if opinion polls try to collect representative samples, they Adidas Scarpe online can not always believe that people give their answer is the real idea. One of the most prominent examples of the United States is the election of the California governor of 1982. Mayor of the mayor of Los Angeles, the mayor of Bradley, has been leading the polls, but has failed in the general election. Then the investigators summed up the cause of the failure and found that the difference was due to the fact that some piumini moncler outlet voters might not want to admit that they would not support an African-American candidate, which is the famous 'Bradley effect'. Survey methods, the traditional American polls are generally through the landline phone, do not Blauer Nuovo need the polls, through the recording to complete the question, the voters just press the recording instructions on the phone to answer the number. But with the popularity of mobile phones, fixed telephone less and less, people refused to call the proportion of unfamiliar phones, and the relevant US law, automatic phone can not broadcast the phone, which makes the sampling for the plane has a deviation, How to neutralize the number of voters and mobile phone users so far in the survey industry has not yet unified the conclusion. In addition to telephone, Internet survey is now the way the major polls adopted. There are also some polls who have begun to try polls by SMS. As Nike Free 6.0 with online surveys, people can choose to respond at any time to avoid talking to someone. New York City Social Research Social Psychologist Michael Schober and his colleagues tested the differences between live and text interviews and found that lack of time pressure and the social pressure to send text messages led to the disclosure of more information and more honest. However, combined with the number of US presidential elections generally only 40% -50% of the total population, and this year's voters do not like the fact that Hillary and Chuan Pu, registered to participate in the number of voters can meet the needs of accurate polls The number of estimates is the most troublesome opinion polls, right? Examples of polls Reflect public opinion is also shaping public opinion Whether UGG Botas negro it is grass-roots polls or sampling polls, are established in a common belief that public opinion can be reflected in the form of data.
evahe
 
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